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Review of domestic phosphate fertilizer market trend in 2021

  • Looking back on 2021, driven by favorable factors such as the macro environment, national policies, supply and demand costs, China's phosphate fertilizer industry has reached a new peak, and market prices have continued to break new highs.

    In 2021, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market rose and fell, and the price rose to the highest level in the past five years. In the first quarter, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market was suppressed first and then increased. In the first ten days of January, the support of downstream compound fertilizer demand weakened, and some manufacturers intended to withdraw funds by the end of the year, and the price of Monoammonium was loosened; However, after the Spring Festival, the international market was affected by the shortage of raw materials and the reduction of production and maintenance of some devices, and the demand for procurement continued to increase. China was in the peak season of winter storage and domestic sales, and the market price was tight.

    In the second quarter, monoammonium phosphate market mainly rose. In the first ten days of April, the new export orders of Monoammonium were not ideal, and the market price was clearly stable and secretly fell; In the middle and late ten days, downstream compound fertilizers and large traders purchased in advance, which was supported by favorable demand, and monoammonium prices were generally increased; In late May, some manufacturers were reluctant to sell the goods, the Brazilian market demand was released, international orders were followed up, and manufacturers had high enthusiasm for trading.

    In the third quarter, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market rose and fell. From July to early August, the tension between supply and demand remained unabated, and the rise in raw material prices led to an increase in the production costs of enterprises. The price of Monoammonium continued to rise, and the high-end ex factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium rose to 3600 yuan / ton at one time; In September, with the end of autumn fertilizer, the start-up of downstream compound fertilizer industry declined, the acceptance of raw materials declined, and the mainstream transaction prices in the domestic market declined.

    In the fourth quarter, monoammonium phosphate market was weak and downward. In mid October, the legal inspection policy for fertilizer export was issued, the export of enterprises was limited, and the market mentality turned empty. However, the domestic autumn market ended, the Northeast market started slowly, the transaction of new orders of enterprises slowed down, and the high price fell; From then on to the end of the year, the market price gradually fell, the raw material prices rose and fell, the cost support was limited, while the winter storage market was advancing slowly, the downstream demand continued to be depressed, compound fertilizer enterprises and traders were cautious in purchasing, the enterprise shipment was not smooth, the inventory pressure was increasing, most enterprises began to implement minimum sales, and the transaction price was low.

    In 2021, the domestic DAP market was mainly volatile and rising. In the first quarter, the market rose sharply. In January, the international demand was released, and the market supply fell short of demand, while local domestic transportation was blocked due to the impact of the epidemic. Downstream dealers actively took goods in response to various uncertain factors after the Spring Festival, but fertilizer enterprises cherish more fertilizer for sale; After the Spring Festival, the market price rose sharply under the support of positive orders in the international market, supply shortages and rising costs.

    In the second quarter, DAP market fell first and then rose. In April, domestic demand turned weak, there was a situation of price without market in many places, and the international market fell, and the domestic market hung upside down seriously; At the beginning of June, the tight market supply, coupled with the continuous rise in international prices, boosted the confidence of the domestic market to support prices; At the end of the month, there was a large demand for diammonium in domestic and foreign markets, and manufacturers received more orders for export.

    In the third quarter, DAP market was mainly consolidated after rising. In July, with the start of fertilizer preparation in autumn, the sales focus of enterprises began to tilt towards China. In August, due to the rising price of raw materials and the limited social inventory, the market continued the trend of tight goods and high prices. However, in mid September, the compound fertilizer market continued to fall, the domestic price was significantly depressed, and the mainstream trading price of diammonium was loosened.

    In the fourth quarter, the diammonium phosphate Market finished at a high level. In mid October, the legal inspection policy for fertilizer export was issued. The export of enterprises was limited, while the domestic demand was light, and the market trading was general. However, the cost side support was not reduced, and the operating rate of enterprises was low, and the market high remained stable. In the first ten days of November, the winter storage market was advancing slowly, traders' purchasing enthusiasm was not high, and under the pressure of enterprise shipping, the focus of trading fell narrowly. In December, there was no significant improvement in downstream demand, and new orders in the market were light, but the high level of raw sulfur and phosphate rock was strong, the cost support remained, and the market was mainly on the sidelines.