Last week, the trading atmosphere in the compound fertilizer market was good, and the operating rate of manufacturers rose to 60%, boosting the slight rise of upstream raw materials. As the Spring Festival approaches, the push up effect of the downstream is weakened, but some enterprises choose to purchase before the festival in order to maintain the resumption of production after the festival. It is expected that the fertilizer market will be in a high consolidation state in the short term. 
Urea stops falling and rebounds
Last week, the price of urea stopped falling and rose steadily. The market prices in many places increased by 10-30 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong was 2600-2630 yuan / ton, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Henan was 2550-2580 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Hebei was 2590-2620 yuan / ton. According to the analysis of the manager Zeng of an agricultural means of production company in Shandong, the floating market of urea has continued, and the main reason is that the social inventory is too low. He said: "at the stage of the largest decline in urea at the end of October last year, many compound fertilizer plants did not dare to reserve, and the channel merchants also did not take the goods. The reasons for the rise in this wave of market are: first, the phased procurement of raw materials in the main production areas of compound fertilizer such as northeast and Shandong; second, the rise in the price of upstream raw material coal; third, the superposition of winter storage and summer storage's' dual storage 'procurement, making the supply of goods in the channel slightly tight." in this regard, manager Wang, the person in charge of a compound fertilizer manufacturer in Hebei, said that most compound fertilizer manufacturers do not purchase too much raw materials during the period of light storage, and in order to avoid risks, they purchase upstream raw materials according to orders. He said: "after the compound fertilizer manufacturers had downstream orders, the operating rate continued to rise. Coupled with the production restriction of the Winter Olympics, the enterprises were worried that they could not resume production on time after the Spring Festival, so the compound fertilizer manufacturers in the region around Beijing must step up production before the spring Festival, so the raw material market was relatively prosperous in January."
According to the reporter, some gas head enterprises have resumed production in succession. Under the policy of ensuring supply and stable prices, the daily output is significantly higher than that of the same period in previous years. At this stage, the average daily output tends to be about 153000 tons, and the overall supply continues to increase. On the demand side, manager Zeng told reporters that according to the situation in previous years, the market situation during the period before the holiday should be that the demand decreased and the price fell slightly. However, judging from the current market performance, urea manufacturers have no inventory pressure for the time being. With the support of downstream demand, it is possible to operate at a high level before and after the Spring Festival. The
According to the international market news, the international urea market fell, and buyers generally began to wait and see. Last week, Brazilian buyers traded at $600 / ton CFR, and the natural gas price has a downward trend. It remains to be seen whether the price fall will continue. 
The price of phosphate fertilizer increased slightly
Phosphate fertilizer continued the upward trend in the previous period. Monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were abundant in pending orders. Some orders of enterprises had been placed until March, and the price remained strong. In Hubei, 55% of powdered ammonium is priced at 2800-2850 yuan / ton, 64% of diammonium is priced at 3550-3600 yuan / ton, and 64% of diammonium is priced at 3850 yuan / ton in Heilongjiang. From the perspective of downstream demand, manager Wang told reporters: "due to the fluctuation of raw material prices in the early stage, the winter storage season in the Northeast was postponed, and the compound fertilizer manufacturers had insufficient stock in the early stage. Since late December last year, the demand for winter storage in the downstream has accelerated, and many ammonium monoammonium manufacturers have received orders until March, so they have suspended receiving orders in the near future. The new price must be higher than the price of advance receipts in the early stage."
In terms of diammonium, the cost support is strong. The price of domestic sulfur has been raised for several weeks. At present, the quotation of sulfur particles in Yangtze River port is 2470 yuan / ton; The price of phosphate rock has little change. The mainstream quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is about 630 yuan / ton. Manager Wang said, "the demand for mixed fertilizer in Northeast and other parts of the country is increasing year by year, and the demand for diammonium as the main raw material of mixed fertilizer is also increasing year by year. At this stage, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement of diammonium has increased, and the demand will continue to release after the Spring Festival."
Compound fertilizer under pressure
Spring ploughing is the most important period of fertilizer use in a year, and the current market situation is changing rapidly. Problems such as raw material price, epidemic situation, transportation and so on have led to huge pressure on compound fertilizer manufacturers. According to insiders, compound fertilizer manufacturers will purchase raw materials as soon as they receive the downstream advance payment, so as not to catch up with the pace of the market and miss the opportunity.
In fact, the production capacity of compound fertilizer plants has been increasing in the past two years. The production capacity of compound fertilizer in China is not small, but the actual operating rate of compound fertilizer is not high. Compound fertilizer manufacturers dare not produce compound fertilizer in less than season or when the purchased raw materials have no advantage. Manager Wang said, "at present, the start-up of compound fertilizer enterprises continues to rise, the downstream market atmosphere is good, and the price of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium has risen one after another, which is conducive to the compound fertilizer market. In terms of price, the ex factory quotation of 45% chlorine based compound fertilizer is 2750~3050 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of 45% sulfur based compound fertilizer is 3050~3250 yuan / ton. The downstream sales are dominated by a single discussion. If the manufacturers feel that the raw materials purchased in this batch have advantages, they will launch an appropriate amount of special price fertilizers to stimulate the downstream to take goods." in addition, due to the good grain prices, farmers' planting enthusiasm is relatively high, especially after the land circulation, the requirements of large contractors for seeds and fertilizers are relatively high. Wang Jing understood and explained, "all kinds of expenses, such as watering, seeds, labor, farming, etc., have been invested. If chemical fertilizer is not used, the output of grain cannot be increased. It is equivalent to that all the inputs are invalid. Therefore, the more large-scale planting households under management have higher requirements for chemical fertilizer, and the rigid demand is beneficial to the market of agricultural materials."
For the future, insiders generally believe that urea has the greatest impact on compound fertilizer. As the Spring Festival approaches, enterprises will consider storing raw materials for fertilizer demand after the holiday. If the urea price is too high and enterprises purchase before the holiday or slow down, the urea price may have a slight risk of falling. It is worth noting that on January 18, jinxiandong, spokesman of the national development and Reform Commission, said that the supply of fertilizer for spring ploughing this year is guaranteed, but considering the difficulty of further sharply reducing production costs, it is expected that the price of fertilizer for spring ploughing may still be high.
To sum up, in the case of low social inventory, the urea market response is still sensitive, and there may be loosening and decline before the holiday. It is expected that the market will still operate at a high level in February; Phosphate fertilizer enterprises have no sales pressure for the time being, and the market will remain stable and upward after the holiday; The demand for compound fertilizer in the downstream peak season is approaching, and the raw material market fluctuates greatly. Enterprises are preparing to adjust prices for post holiday sales. In the later stage, we need to continue to pay attention to the operating rate before and after the festival, the trend of upstream raw materials, social inventory, epidemic changes and the trend of international market.